Why Trump will Win

Inner-city Americans. Trump will carry maybe twice the tally (16-18 percent) of the average Republican. He can do it merely by uttering three phrases: outrageous crime, open borders and school choice. For the first time in our lives, Democrats find themselves having to defend their standing in the black community. Which will make it harder for them to generate the margins they need in Miami, Philadelphia, Detroit, Charlotte and Atlanta to carry the key states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia.

Of course that's if the Republicans don't surrender the cities this time.

Substance. During the week when Biden proposed a nationwide mask mandate, Trump was at the White House with Israeli and Arab leaders touting his brokerage of the historic peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. When Trump touted a potential Coronavirus treatment, Biden proposed a return to lockdowns.

Kamala Harris is untested. A living, breathing lesson in the folly of identity politics. A liberal-state machine politican. When people view her more closely as a potential President, they'll see nothing but a younger version of Hillary, whom the voters once rejected.

Because this time Trump will not defeat himself? Give him some credit; he's learned from his mistakes. Sure, he's a bit too rough around the edges for some (he's a New Yorker!) but as evidenced by his many policy achievments, as President he wase clearly a results-oriented, can-do politician. Which appeals to most voters.

To quote Abraham Lincoln (in response to demands that he sack General Grant after the disastrous Shiloh battle):

"I cannot spare this man. He fights."

Eventually the American public will conclude the same about President Trump.