Here's how the precinct analysis works

Most people, despite what they say, are faithful Democrats or Republicans. The job of your campaign is twofold: 1) make sure the likely Republicans vote, and b) reach out to those whose vote could depend on what you do or say. You don’t know who they are, but an analysis of each voting precinct will at least show where most of them live.

Over the course of 30 years and 100 campaigns, we’ve seen nothing that produces greater benefits for the resources committed to developing a precinct analysis. That's because a precinct analysis provides what your campaign needs the most (other than money, of course): Priorities and Focus.

Precinct Categories

1. Ticket-Splitters

The top-ranking 20 percent in the ticket-split column. You will notice that most of these precincts rank high in the other categories as well. Which means that you can win them — big — but you must also work them.

2. Base Republican

The top-ranking 20 percent in the average Republican percent column that are not already included in Category 1. These are the consistently-Republican precincts. Make sure that your mailings and walk lists include the Democrats in these precincts because it’s likely that most of them vote for at least one or two Republicans on the ballot. Target these precincts first for get-out-the-vote and voter registration.

3. Aspiring Republican

Here’s where it gets a bit tricky. Keep moving down the list in order by Overall Rank, and assign precincts to Category 3 until you’ve included two thirds of your anticipated turnout (Column O). These are the precincts that you’ll turn into bedrock Republican once you’re elected and have had a few years to work them. Until then, just make sure that you break even in these precincts.

4. Base Democrat

Generally everything in the 20-33 Average Republican Percent range hat is not already categorized. (Most voters in these precincts have almost never voted for a Republican, so Republican losses here are predictable.

5. Solid Democrat

The bottom 20 percent in overall rank. They vote Democrat. Period. (In the example you’ll see that no Republican has even reached 20 percent.) These precincts will be the focus of Democrat turnout. The good news is that, because they vote so consistently D, you can actually predict your likely losses at various turnout levels. At least then you’ll know what you’ll need from the rest of the district.

NOTE: We're in luck. With Trump leading the ticket in 2024, the losses in categories 3 and 4 won't be as serious if the Republican party gets a Republican slate card into the hands of every voter. Trump is polling higher in these solid-D areas than any national Republican since Abraham Lincoln. It would be the folly of the century if the GOP doesn't take advantage of this.

Don't let registration numbers mislead you

The ratio of registered Republicans to Democrats doesn't necessarily predict voting habits. If the Democrat party runs active primary elections, and the Republicans don’t, then Democrat registration will be disproportionatley higher.

“Independents” are a myth. Don’t mistakenly assume that voters without a party registration are somehow “independent”. In most states it means they haven’t voted in a primary. An unaffiliated voter in a heavily Republican precinct probably votes Republican, while an unaffiliated voter in a base-Democrat precinct votes – you guessed it! Only a tiny fraction of voters are truly independent, despite what you may hear. The proof is in the precinct results. Most people sympathize with one party or another – and vote that way, particularly in low-visibility elections (anything below Governor or US Senator), where they haven’t much knowledge of the candidates or issues.